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...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...
THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SPRINGFIELD
MISSOURI HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA) AND INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
RIVERS ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHITE...
OSAGE...LITTLE OSAGE...MARMATON...SAC...GASCONADE...BIG
PINEY...SPRING...ELK...SHOAL...JAMES...NORTH FORK WHITE...ELEVEN
POINT AND JACKS FORK.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE OSAGE...LITTLE OSAGE...MARMATON...BIG PINEY AND
GASCONADE RIVERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE RIVERS ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS PREDICTION IS BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF
CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE... STREAM AND LAKE CONDITIONS...AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SPRING.
CURRENTLY...THERE IS NO RIVER FLOODING OCCURRING IN THE SPRINGFIELD
HSA. RIVER FLOODING WILL NOT OCCUR DUE TO RECENT SNOW MELT. HOWEVER
THE SNOW MELT HAS ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS BY SEVERAL FEET OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND BOURBON COUNTY KANSAS. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE RIVER FLOODING DUE TO CONVECTIVE
RAINFALL EVENTS.
...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN IMPROVEMENT IN SOIL MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT
RAIN AND SNOW EVENTS...OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE REGION...WITH DEFICITS OF THREE TO FOUR INCHES OVER EXTREME
WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND DEFICITS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES OVER THE REST OF THE REGION.
...CURRENT RIVER AND LAKE CONDITIONS...
RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH STREAMFLOWS IN THE 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE.
ONE EXCEPTION WAS ON THE MARMATON RIVER AT FORT SCOTT KANSAS...WHERE
STREAMFLOW WAS GREATER THAN THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF PAST STREAMFLOWS.
AT AREA LAKES ALONG AND NEAR THE WHITE RIVER...INCLUDING TABLE
ROCK...BULL SHOALS...BEAVER AND NORFORK...100 PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD
POOL STORAGE AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT OF THEIR CONSERVATION POOL
STORAGE IS AVAILABLE FOR FLOOD CONTROL. STOCKTON LAKE AND LAKE OF THE
OZARKS HAVE 100 PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD POOL STORAGE AND 10 TO 15
PERCENT OF THEIR CONSERVATION POOLS AVAILABLE FOR FLOOD CONTROL.
POMME DE TERRE AND TRUMAN HAVE 90 TO 95 PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD POOL
STORAGE AVAILABLE FOR FLOOD CONTROL.
...STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...
IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...THE FOLLOWING ENSEMBLE
STREAMFLOW PREDICTIONS FOR SELECTED RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
INCLUDED BELOW...
SPRING RIVER AT CARTHAGE...
PROBABILITY OF MINOR FLOODING...23 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF MODERATE FLOODING...7 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF MAJOR FLOODING...NOT EXPECTED
SPRING RIVER AT WACO...
PROBABILITY OF MINOR FLOODING...28 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF MODERATE FLOODING...NOT EXPECTED
PROBABILITY OF MAJOR FLOODING...NOT EXPECTED
ELK RIVER AT TIFF CITY...
PROBABILITY OF MINOR FLOODING...20 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF MODERATE FLOODING...6 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF MAJOR FLOODING...NOT EXPECTED
GASCONADE RIVER AT HAZELGREEN...
PROBABILITY OF MINOR FLOODING...13 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF MODERATE FLOODING...NOT EXPECTED
PROBABILITY OF MAJOR FLOODING...NOT EXPECTED
GASCONADE RIVER AT JEROME
PROBABILITY OF MINOR FLOODING...31 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF MODERATE FLOODING...NOT EXPECTED
PROBABILITY OF MAJOR FLOODING...NOT EXPECTED
BIG PINEY RIVER AT FORT LEONARD WOOD...
PROBABILITY OF MINOR FLOODING...71 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF MODERATE FLOODING...25 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF MAJOR FLOODING...NOT EXPECTED
...CLIMATE OUTLOOKS...
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MARCH SHIFTS TO EQUAL
CHANCES FOR ABOVE...BELOW AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS AND
EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...BELOW AND NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REST OF THE REGION.
...SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH SPRING
OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...WHERE ABNORMALLY DRY
TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RESIDE. FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI IS NO LONGER IN DROUGHT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DROUGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SPRING.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON DROUGHT CONDITIONS...VISIT THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR WEB SITE AT HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR AREA RIVERS...
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 3/9/2013 - 6/7/2013
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:GASCONADE RIVER
HAZELGREEN 21.0 26.0 30.0 : 13 15 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BIG PINEY RIVER
FORT LEONARD WOOD 13.0 17.0 23.0 : 71 78 25 23 <5 <5
:GASCONADE RIVER
JEROME 15.0 25.0 30.0 : 31 40 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SPRING RIVER
CARTHAGE 10.0 14.0 20.0 : 24 28 7 8 <5 <5
WACO 19.0 30.0 33.0 : 28 28 <5 <5 <5 <5
BAXTER SPRINGS 14.0 22.0 30.0 : 22 27 10 12 <5 <5
:SHOAL CREEK
JOPLIN 14.0 15.0 16.0 : 7 6 5 5 <5 <5
:ELK RIVER
TIFF CITY 15.0 20.0 25.0 : 20 37 6 17 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 3/9/2013 - 6/7/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:GASCONADE RIVER
HAZELGREEN 5.6 6.1 7.7 12.1 18.4 22.4 23.7
:BIG PINEY RIVER
FORT LEONARD WOOD 11.7 12.2 12.8 14.6 17.0 18.8 19.9
:GASCONADE RIVER
JEROME 5.4 6.9 8.7 12.4 16.9 21.1 22.5
:SPRING RIVER
CARTHAGE 4.1 4.2 4.9 6.1 9.9 13.6 14.3
WACO 6.6 7.7 9.8 12.0 20.2 24.2 26.6
BAXTER SPRINGS 5.1 5.5 6.3 9.1 12.3 22.2 26.8
:SHOAL CREEK
JOPLIN 2.8 3.7 4.8 6.3 8.4 11.9 15.8
:ELK RIVER
TIFF CITY 4.2 4.9 6.3 8.2 13.6 18.1 20.9
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.
THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD AND RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR
THIS SPRING. LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE UPDATED NEAR THE
END OF EVERY MONTH. PLEASE VISIT OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/SGF
FOR CURRENT AND FUTURE WEATHER AND FLOOD INFORMATION.